- Morning Briefing w/ KevinD
- Posts
- Friday August 16 @ 9:00am
Friday August 16 @ 9:00am
KevinD
August 16, 2024
"Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens."
📺️ Programming Note
On Fridays during the summer we’ll be publishing a condensed version of our regular newsletter. Economic and earnings events for the day, along with some brief commentary will be included, however, we will not be able to cover overnight and pre-market action. Enjoy your weekend!
💵 Economic Reports and Events Today
Consensus forecasts shown
8:30am Building Permits: 1.43M expected, 1.45M previous. The annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month. (link)
8:30am Housing Starts: 1.34M expected, 1.35M previous. Indicates the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month. (link)
10:00am Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: 66.7 expected, 66.4 previous. Reflects the level of consumer confidence in economic activity, based on a survey of about 500 consumers. (link)
10:00am Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations: No estimate, 2.9% previous. Percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to change during the next 12 months, based on the University of Michigan's survey. (link)
1:25pm FOMC Member Goolsbee participate in a fireside chat at the Angeles Investors’ Q3 Summit & Awards Event, in Chicago. (link)
📰 Selected Earnings Releases
Consensus Estimates shown
After Hours Today:
FLO Flowers Foods EPS: 0.33 Revenue: 1.24B (link)
Pre-Market Monday:
💬 Commentary
Yesterday's rally was fueled by a better-than-expected retail sales report, which eased recession fears and sent stocks surging higher. SPY gained 1.7%, QQQ surged 2.5%, and IWM outperformed its large cap peers with a 2.6% gain. Not surprisingly onsumer discretionary stocks led the charge, up 3.2%, followed by technology at 2.9%. Defensive sectors underperformed, with utilities flat and REITs down 0.3%.
Interestingly, the typical inverse correlation between yields and equities broke down, as yields moved higher with the 10-year nearing the important 4.00% level once again as the probability of a 50bps rate cut at the next meeting diminishes.
While the rally shows strength, SPY and QQQ are approaching potential resistance levels after multiple consecutive up days. A slowdown in momentum or a minor pullback would be a healthy and normal occurrence, especially with monthly options expiring today and the likelihood of profit-taking late this afternoon to head into the weekend.
⛵ When you’re ready…
Some tools/resources that I personally find valuable.
A powerful yet simple fundamental analysis tool: Stock Unlock
AI-powered stock research tools used by institutional investors: Finchat
The trading journal to help improve your trading performance: Tradervue
Analyze trade ideas with me, KevinD, in live calls: My trading group
#1 charting software for serious traders: TradingView
How would you rate today's brief? |
Was this email forwarded to you? Subscribe if you like it!
Want to sponsor our newsletter? Go here.