- Morning Briefing w/ KevinD
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- Friday March 16 @ 9:05am
Friday March 16 @ 9:05am
Matthew
March 17, 2023
"May you have all the happiness and luck that life can hold, and at the end of your rainbows may you find a pot of gold."
📈 The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Down a lot
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Up
🌏 Major Global Catalysts
Yesterday;s 50bps ECB hike solidifies probability of a 25bps hike at next weeks FOMC meeting.
💵 Economic Reports and Events Today
Consensus forecasts shown
9:15am Capacity Utilization Rate 78.5% Percentage of available resources being utilized by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
9:15am Industrial Production m/m 0.2% Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
10:00am Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 66.9 urvey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions
10:00am Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 4.1% Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents where they expect prices to be 12 months in the future.
10:00am CB Leading Index m/m -0.3% Change in the level of a composite index based on 10 economic indicators.
At Close Quad Witching The expiration of single stock futures, stock index futures, stock index options and single stock options. Very high volatility and violent price swings should be expected coming into the close.
📰 Selected Earnings Releases
Consensus Estimates shown
After Hours Today:
None
Pre-Market Tomorrow:
PDD Pinduoduo EPS 1.200 Rev 5.88B
DOYU DouYu International Hldgs EPS 0.000 Rev 241.59M
FL Foot Locker EPS 0.500 Rev 2.14B
🔮 Selected Analyst Ratings Changes
AMZN Amazon com JP Morgan Maintains Overweight Lowers to 135.00
GOOGL Alphabet JMP Securities Reiterates Market Outperform Maintains 132.00
INTC Intel Susquehanna Upgrades to Neutral Targets 26.00
NFLX Netflix Citigroup Maintains Buy Raises to 400.00
NVDA NVIDIA Wedbush Reiterates Neutral Maintains 216.00
SQ Block Mizuho Upgrades to Buy Raises to 93.00
UAA Under Armour William Blair Upgrades to Buy Targets 11.00
📉 Stocks In Play
FRC First Republic Bank Down 22% on dividend suspension in spite of a $30B cash infusion.
SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics Down 20% as FDA decides to hold a public advisory committee hearing on their SRP 9001 BLA drug.
MARA, RIOT, CLSK, COIN up around 8% on crypto rally.
FDX FedEx Up 11% on strong earnings and raised guidance.
💬 Commentary
Yesterday, the major indices exhibited considerable strength after shaking off a small gap down open and a shaky start to the day. The Nasdaq once again led the way, with large-cap tech firms dominating the leaderboard. Notably, regional banks, such as PACW, WAL, and others, joined the rally, contributing to FRC's impressive recovery from a 36% loss to a 10% gain by the end of the day. This bullish trend caught many shorts off guard, making it a profitable day for investors and long side traders.
Markets have pulled back in premarket, signaling a gap down opening. Despite a major show of confidence and cash infusion by 11 of the largest banks into FRC First Republic, regional banks continue to experience a downtrend. The Nasdaq has experienced a slight decline, but tech stocks, particularly chip companies like AMD and NVDA, have continued to outperform all week.
With Quad Witching today, we anticipate high trading volumes and unusual price fluctuations, particularly around the open as index futures expire and at the close as options contracts expire. We've been warning traders throughout the week that they must remain agile amidst this volatility to succeed and today is no exception.
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