- Morning Briefing w/ KevinD
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- Friday March 3 @ 9:00am
Friday March 3 @ 9:00am
Matthew
March 03, 2023
“The biggest mistake a fundamental analyst makes is thinking a stock and a company are the same thing. The biggest mistake a technical analyst makes is thinking they are different.”
📈 The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up a bit
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Down
🧐 Yields: Down a lot
🔮 Crypto: Down
🌏 Major Global Catalysts
Fed's Bostic talk of .25% rate hike ignites rally.
💵 Economic Reports and Events Today
Consensus forecasts shown
9:45am Final Services PMI 50.5 Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry.
10:00am ISM Services PMI 54.5 Survey of about 300 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
11:00am FOMC Member Logan Speaks Due to deliver opening remarks at the an event hosted by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
📰 Selected Earnings Releases
Consensus Estimates shown
After Hours Today:
None
Pre-Market Monday:
RIDE Lordstown Motors EPS -0.270 Rev 1.29M
CIEN Ciena EPS 0.580 Rev 1.04B
🔮 Selected Analyst Ratings Changes
AI C3ai JMP Securities Maintains Market Outperform Raises to 27.00
COST Costco Wholesale Baird Maintains Outperform Lowers to 535.00
CRM Salesforce Citigroup Maintains Neutral Raises to 210.00
DLO DLocal UBS Downgrades to Sell Lowers to 14.00
FSLR First Solar UBS Upgrades to Buy Raises to 250.00
TSLA Tesla Daiwa Capital Maintains Outperform Raises to 218.00
TSLA Tesla KGI Securities Downgrades to Neutral Targets 196.00
ZUO Zuora Canaccord Genuity Maintains Buy Raises to 16.00
📉 Stocks In Play
AI C3ai Retail's favorite artificial intelligence stock up 19% on an earnings beat and strong guidance.
VERU Veru Small biotech down 36% as the FDA denies approval for Covid respiratory treatment.
ARDX Ardelyx Up 18% on solid earnings and an analyst upgrade.
💬 Commentary
Yesterday was a very interesting day for the market, with a much needed change in character due to dovish comments from the Fed's Bostic during the afternoon. It appeared that traders were eagerly seeking any reason to buy, as the day did not begin on a bullish note. In fact, both SPY and QQQ fell below the 200 day moving average in pre-market trading. However, they quickly recovered this crucial level and continued to climb slowly, eventually experiencing a nice intraday pop and printing a very nice looking bullish engulfing candle on the charts.
This morning, the equities rally looks set to continue with a small gap up as yields and the dollar drift lower. The ISM Services PMI will be a critical inflection point to determine whether the bulls can maintain the rally over the next few days or if it will fizzle out. Pay close attention to the reaction to the 10:00 data point for confirmation that this nascent rally can continue. Additionally, watch for outperformance in consumer discretionary, communications, and technology sectors to provide further confirmation that we are at the beginning of a rally that has the potential to last for at least a few days.
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