- Morning Briefing w/ KevinD
- Posts
- Friday May 5 @ 9:00am
"An idiot with a plan can beat a genius without a plan."
📈 The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Up strongly
🔮 Crypto: Up
🌏 Major Global Catalysts
Apple’s earnings beat
💵 Economic Reports and Events Today
Consensus forecasts shown
8:30am Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3%, 0.5% reported. Change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry.
8:30am Non-Farm Payrolls 181K, 253K reported. Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
8:30am Unemployment Rate 3.6%, 3.4% reported. Percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
3:00pm Consumer Credit m/m 17.3B Change in the total value of outstanding consumer credit that requires installment payments.
Tentative FOMC Financial Stability Report Semi-annual assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability. The evidence on strains and imbalances can provide insight into the future of monetary policy.
📰 Selected Earnings Releases
Consensus Estimates shown
After Hours Today:
None
Pre-Market Monday:
TSN Tyson Foods EPS 0.760 Rev 13.59B
BNTX BioNTech EPS 1.030 Rev 1.95B
SIX Six Flags Entertainment EPS -0.850 Rev 132.560M
KKR KKR & Co EPS 0.740 Rev 1.22B
🔮 Selected Analyst Ratings Changes
AAPL Apple Morgan Stanley Maintains Overweight Raises to 185.00
SHOP Shopify Keybanc Maintains Overweight Raises to 65.00
K Kellogg JP Morgan Upgrades to Neutral Raises to 72.00
SEDG SolarEdge Technologies Deutsche Bank Upgrades to Buy Raises to 375.00
TEAM Atlassian Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Neutral Lowers to 165.00
📉 Stocks In Play
CVNA Carvana Up 47% on earnings as it's 50% short interest appers to be setting off a squeeze.
PACW PacWest Banc Up 26% along with WAL and other regional banks that look to be squeezing as well.
AU Anglogold Ashanti Down 3% with other gold and precious metals stocks as the recent rally stalls.
💬 Commentary
Yesterday, the market opened with a gap down, but it managed to stabilize as buyers continuously supported the lows throughout the day. The market appeared in a holding pattern, waiting for Apple's earnings after the market closed. If Apple's earnings had been disappointing, the S&P500 would have broken below the crucial pivot low of last week and the trading range of the last month, leading to a serious pullback. However, Apple beat its lowered expectations, causing AAPL and the overall market to rally after-hours, and the rally has continued in the pre-market. Financials and regional banks are showing impressive gains this morning helping lift IWM to strong outperformance over it’s more senior peers.
This morning's Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a better-than-expected increase in jobs, higher labor costs, and a lower unemployment rate last month, which is positive for the economy but not necessarily for the market's expectations of Fed rate cuts this year. As anticipated, index futures initially dropped on the report, but buyers have stepped in and are currently pushing prices up. While there will likely be some volatility at the open and throughout the day as the report is digested, markets are still indicating a strong gap up open, doing a good job of absorbing the data.
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