- Morning Briefing w/ KevinD
- Posts
- Monday April 22 @ 9:00am
“”It’s different this time” are not the most dangerous words in investing. “I’ll invest when things are back to normal” are far worse.”
📈 The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly up
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Up
🌏 Major Global Catalysts
Middle East tensions easing. (link)
💵 Economic Reports and Events Today
Consensus forecasts shown
A welcome reprieve from the constant barrage of Fed speak began on Saturday with the Federal Reserve blackout period ahead of the next FOMC meeting on May 1st and 2nd. (link)
📰 Selected Earnings Releases
Consensus Estimates shown
After Hours Today:
Pre-Market Tomorrow:
SPOT Spotify Technology EPS 0.780 Rev 3.91B (link)
PEP PepsiCo EPS 1.52 Rev 18.09B (link)
JBLU JetBlue Airways EPS -0.52 Rev 2.20B (link)
HAL Halliburton EPS 0.74 Rev 5.66B (link)
LMT Lockheed Martin EPS 5.81 Rev 15.99B (link)
GM General Motors EPS 2.14 Rev 41.87B (link)
UPS United Parcel Service EPS 1.30 Rev 21.86B (link)
FCX Freeport-McMoRan EPS 0.27 Rev 5.65B (link)
PM Philip Morris Intl EPS 1.41 Rev 8.49B (link)
PHM PulteGroup EPS 2.36 Rev 3.58B (link)
🔮 Selected Analyst Ratings Changes
AA Alcoa Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Equal-Weight Raises to 36.50
LHX L3Harris Technologies Alembic Global Upgrades to Overweight Targets 238.00
PZZA Papa John's International Stifel Upgrades to Hold Lowers to 60.00
SE Sea B of A Securities Upgrades to Buy Raises to 70.00
📉 Stocks In Play
TSLA Tesla Down 4% after cutting prices in China again amid an intensifying EV price war. Other Chinese EV makers LI, NIO, XPEV showing similar losses. (link)
CRM Salesforce Up 3% on reports the company is walking back plans to buy INFA Informatica, down 6%. (link)
SNAP Snap Up 4% as a bill banning TikTok speeds its way through Congress. (link)
SE Sea Up 5% on an analyst upgrade. (link)
VZ Verizon Communications Up 2% as net income beats analysts expectations. (link)
💬 Commentary
Markets slipped into a minor correction last week, with selling accelerating in large-cap tech and semiconductors on Friday, reaching a point that resembles capitulation and could quickly turn into a decent bounce. SPY lost nearly 1% on Friday, QQQ pulled back just over 2%, and interestingly, IWM small caps gained slightly with the help of a strong performance from regional banks. Defensive sectors, energy, and financials had a relatively strong day, while consumer discretionary, communications, and especially technology were quite weak amid NVDA’s 10% plunge and SMCI’s 23% rout.
The economic calendar is fairly busy this week, but thankfully, the Fed is in blackout ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Important reports coming this week include the Flash manufacturing and services PMIs, retail sales, housing sales, GDP, and consumer sentiment. Most importantly, the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, Personal Consumption Expenditures, is scheduled for Friday before the open. It’s also a busy week for earnings, with a diverse list of important companies reporting that includes four of the Mag 7 and 30% of S&P500 companies.
Gold and silver prices have declined significantly this morning, while oil is down by 1% as tensions in the Middle East ease. Stocks are experiencing a moderate rally, primarily driven by the technology and financial sectors. However, the early pre-market bounce in semiconductor stocks has lost momentum and reversed as SCMI's decline persists. The overall market is poised for a rebound, which may be starting this morning, but it could prove challenging as yields rise slightly and semiconductor decline. Semis likely require a significant capitulation flush before they can bounce and that usually starts with a gap down open like we’re seeing this morning. Traders need to be on their vigilant today, watch these rotations closely, and be prepared to play high volume reversals aggressively.
⛵ When you’re ready…
Some tools/resources that I personally find valuable.
A powerful yet simple fundamental analysis tool: Stock Unlock
AI-powered stock research tools used by institutional investors: Finchat
The trading journal to help improve your trading performance: Tradervue
Analyze trade ideas with me, KevinD, in live calls: My trading group
#1 charting software for serious traders: TradingView
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