- Morning Briefing w/ KevinD
- Posts
- Monday July 15 @ 9:00am
Monday July 15 @ 9:00am
Stocks are higher as the rate cut narrative continues and the "Trump trade" reignites.
KevinD
July 15, 2024
“If it's obvious, it's obviously wrong.”
📈 The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed, China down
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Up slightly
🪙 Gold: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🔮 Crypto: Up strongly
🌏 Major Global Catalysts
💵 Economic Reports and Events Today
8:30am Empire State Manufacturing Index: -5.5 expected, -6.0 previous. Level of a diffusion index based on a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state which asks respondents to rate the relative level of general business conditions. (link)
12:00pm Fed Chair Powell speaks at the Economic Club of Washington DC. (link)
4:35pm FOMC Member Daly participates in a moderated discussion about the economy at Fortune Brainstorm Tech 2024, in Utah. (link)
📰 Selected Earnings Releases
Consensus Estimates shown
After Hours Today:
None
Pre-Market Tomorrow:
🔮 Selected Analyst Ratings Changes
AAPL Morgan Stanley Maintains Overweight, Raises Target to 273.00
📉 Stocks In Play
DJT Trump Media & Technology: Up 50% but well off earlier highs after Trump survives assassination attempt. See also PHUN Up 31%, RUM Up 10%. (link)
IBIT IShares Bitcoin Trust: Up 9% as crypto rallies on the 'Trump trade'. See also COIN Up 5%, CLSK Up 7%, MARA Up 6%. (link)
SEDG SolarEdge Technologies: Down 8% with other solar stocks after the company announced a second round of layoffs. See also RUN Down 6%, ENPH Down 5%. (link)
BIDU Baidu: Down 4% after China reports lower than expected Q2 GDP. See also XPEV Down 4%, JD Down 3%. (link)
TSLA Tesla: Up 4% continuing to recover from Thursday's robotaxi plunge as Musk endorses Trump. (link)
💬 Commentary
Stocks moved higher last week, with SPY and QQQ setting new all-time highs before pulling back later in the week. Breadth improved with a strong rotation into small caps and rate-sensitive sectors such as REITs and utilities after Thursday’s CPI report showed cooling inflation, paving the way for the Fed to begin an easing cycle, widely expected to start with the first cut at the September FOMC meeting.
The economic calendar is fairly light this week. Highlights include today’s Jay Powell speech, tomorrow’s retail sales report, and Thursday’s ECB monetary policy and rate statement. Additionally, there will be a parade of Fed officials making statements throughout the week ahead of the July 30 FOMC meeting blackout period which begins on Saturday.
Most stocks are higher but have pulled back from earlier highs in the pre-market this morning as higher odds of a Trump victory in November ignite the “Trump trade.” The rate cut narrative from last week continues as well, helping small caps outperform their larger-cap peers.
⛵ When you’re ready…
Some tools/resources that I personally find valuable.
A powerful yet simple fundamental analysis tool: Stock Unlock
AI-powered stock research tools used by institutional investors: Finchat
The trading journal to help improve your trading performance: Tradervue
Analyze trade ideas with me, KevinD, in live calls: My trading group
#1 charting software for serious traders: TradingView
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