- Morning Briefing w/ KevinD
- Posts
- Monday September 16 @ 9:00am
Monday September 16 @ 9:00am
Markets mixed and starting to show some weakness ahead of the open
KevinD
September 16, 2024
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“There will always be bull markets followed by bear markets followed by bull markets.”
📈 The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Down slightly
🌎 US Index Futures: Mixed
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
🪙 Gold: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Up slightly
💵 Dollar: Down
🔮 Crypto: Down
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💵 Economic Reports and Events Today
8:30am Empire State Manufacturing Index: -4.1 expected, 11.5 reported, -4.7 previous. A survey of manufacturers in New York state that gauges business conditions. (link)
📰 Selected Earnings Releases
Consensus Estimates shown
After Hours Today:
None
Pre-Market Tomorrow:
FERG Ferguson EPS: 2.88 Revenue: 8.06B (link)
🔮 Selected Analyst Ratings Changes
BLDR Builders FirstSource: Truist Securities Upgrades to Buy, Raises Target to $220.00
KMI Kinder Morgan: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Equal-Weight, Maintains Target at $24.00
SFM Sprouts Farmers Market: Evercore ISI Group Upgrades to Outperform, Raises Target to $120.00
SPG Simon Property Group: Evercore ISI Group Upgrades to Outperform, Raises Target to $172.00
ZG Zillow Gr: Wedbush Upgrades to Outperform, Raises Target to $80.00
📉 Stocks In Play
AAPL Apple: Down 2% on reports iPhone 16 Pro model pre-orders are lower than expected. (link)
INTC Intel: Up 2% but well off earlier highs on a report the company has qualified for $3.5 billion in federal grants to make advanced chips for the Pentagon. (link)
MU Micron Technology: Down 3% in sympathy with competitor SK Hynix which was downgraded on weakening DRAM pricing and NAND demand. (link)
UPST Upstart Holdings: Down 7% after announcing a private offering of $300 million in convertible senior notes. (link)
EXAS Exact Sciences: Up 5% after the company announced data for its blood-based colorectal cancer screening test. (link)
💬 Commentary
Last week, the market rebounded from its worst week of the year with its best week of the year as the S&P 500 surged over 4% on optimism for a potential 50bps rate cut. Heading into the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, the odds of either a 25bps or 50bps cut are now evenly split at 50/50. Market sentiment shifted to risk-on, with IWM small caps leading the charge on Friday, gaining 2.5%, while SPY and QQQ added around 0.5% each. Interest rate-sensitive sectors, like utilities, led the day's performance with a 1.4% rise, while industrials and communications also climbed about 1%. All 11 sectors closed higher, but healthcare and financials notably underperformed.
This week's economic calendar is centered on Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision and Jay Powell’s press conference, which is expected to bring significant volatility as the market adjusts it’s rate expectations and reacts to the outcome. In addition to the Fed, traders will be closely watching Tuesday’s retail sales report and rate decisions from other global central banks throughout the week.
Stocks are mixed and weakening in pre-market trading this morning, with small caps outperforming while the Nasdaq lags on weakness in semiconductors and Apple. After five consecutive days of gains, further upside heading into Wednesday’s FOMC meeting is less likely, especially as the major indices and many individual stocks appear stretched. Additionally, the second half of September is historically the weakest two-week period of the year. That said, momentum was strong to close out last week, and growing expectations for a 50bps rate cut which could provide a tailwind for another push higher so a choppy day as opposing catalysts push and pull on the market may be the most likely outcome today.
⛵ When you’re ready…
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