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- Thursday January 4 @ 9:00am
Thursday January 4 @ 9:00am
Stocks giving back earlier gains on hotter than expected jobs data and negative AAPL and AMZN catalysts
Matthew
January 04, 2024
“When you get a hunch, buy a bunch.”
📈 The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Up slightly
🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Up a lot
🔮 Crypto: Up
🌏 Major Global Catalysts
US led coalition gives Houthis final warn to stop ship attacks.
💵 Economic Reports and Events Today
Consensus forecasts shown
8:15am ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 120K, 164K reported. Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government. (link)
8:30am Unemployment Claims 217K, 202K reported. The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. (link)
9:45am Final Services PMI 51.3 Level of a diffusion index based on a survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. (link)
11:00am Crude Oil Inventories -3.2M Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week. (link)
📰 Selected Earnings Releases
Consensus Estimates shown
After Hours Today:
None
Pre-Market Tomorrow:
STZ Constellation Brands EPS 3.00 Rev 2.54B (link)
🔮 Selected Analyst Ratings Changes
AAPL Apple Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral Lowers to 205.00
HD Home Depot Barclays Upgrades to Overweight Raises to 372.00
MRK Merck & Co TD Cowen Upgrades to Outperform Raises to 135.00
MU Micron Technology Piper Sandler Upgrades to Overweight Raises to 95.00
AXP American Express JP Morgan Upgrades to Overweight Raises to 205.00
COF Capital One JP Morgan Downgrades to Neutral Raises to 131.00
CMA Comerica Goldman Sachs Upgrades to Buy Targets 70.5000
📉 Stocks In Play
AMZN Amazon.com Down 2% as TikTok plans e-commerce expansion. (link)
PTON Peloton Interactive Up 7% as Peloton And TikTok announce partnership for 'TikTokFitness Powered by Peloton'. (link)
FUBO FuboTV Up 3% on major distribution agreement with Nexstar. (link)
CALM Cal-Maine Foods Down 5% after reporting a sharp decline in earnings and significant loss of it's flock in Kansas to bird flu. (link)
MBLY Mobileye Down 30% after slashing revenue forecasts. (link)
💬 Commentary
The major indices were very choppy after gapping down at the open yesterday ahead of the FOMC December meeting minutes. The market rallied briefly on the release but succumbed to the prevailing thought among FOMC members that rates would need to stay higher for longer, dashing hopes of an early rate cut. Nonetheless, the market is still pricing in a 68% probability of a rate cut at the March meeting, down from 73% before the report’s release.
The selling in tech slowed somewhat yesterday, with the Q’s down 1.06%, as sellers attention shifted to small caps, taking IWM down 2.67%. Most sectors were lower on the day, with only energy and utilities managing to finish higher, while REITs and consumer discretionary were very weak, down more than 2%.
Index futures are lower ahead of the open after giving back earlier gains on hotter-than-expected jobs data, another downgrade for Apple, and increasing competition for Amazon coming from TikTok. After four days of selling, we should expect to see slowing downside momentum or even a reversal, but it seems early dip buyers are being shaken out this morning. We may need to wait one more day for tomorrow morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls report for the catalyst that turns this slide around. The indices and most individual names are at or near an area of potential support, which we expect to hold. However, if that support fails or if NFP can't turn this market around, we may need to brace for a more serious correction coming next week.
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