- Morning Briefing w/ KevinD
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- Thursday July 11 @ 9:00am
Thursday July 11 @ 9:00am
KevinD
July 11, 2024
“Trading gives you an incredibly intense feeling of what life is all about.”
📺️ Programming Note
We are currently on vacation until later this week but will be publishing a condensed version of our regular newsletter. Economic and earnings events for the day, along with some brief commentary will be included, however we will not cover overnight and pre-market action.
💵 Economic Reports and Events Today
Consensus forecasts shown
8:30am Core CPI m/m: 0.2% expected, 0.2% previous. Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy. (link)
8:30am Core CPI y/y: 3.4% expected, 3.4% previous. Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy. (link)
8:30am CPI m/m: 0.1% expected, 0.0% previous. Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. (link)
8:30am CPI y/y: 3.1% expected, 3.3% previous. Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers compared to the same month a year ago. (link)
8:30am Unemployment Claims. 236K expected, 238K previous. The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. (link)
11:30am FOMC Member Bostic participates in a moderated discussion about economic inclusion at the National Credit Union Administration's Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Summit, in Minneapolis. (link)
1:00pm FOMC Member Musalem speaks about the US economy and monetary policy, in Arkansas. (link)
1:01pm 30-y Bond Auction: 4.40% / 2.5 previous. Highest yield on a 30-year bond the government sold at auction, and the bid-to-cover ratio of the auction. (link)
2:00pm Federal Budget Balance: -71.2B expected, -347.1B previous. Difference in value between the federal government's income and spending during the previous month. (link)
📰 Selected Earnings Releases
Consensus Estimates shown
After Hours Today:
None
Pre-Market Tomorrow:
💬 Commentary
The market saw some much-needed range expansion with increased volume yesterday. All of the indices including the Russell 2000 small caps finished the day about 1% higher. All major sectors closed higher, as did all of the Mag 7 stocks. Technology, materials, and healthcare led, while financials, staples, and communications lagged.
Today’s trading will likely be dominated by the market’s reaction to this morning’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report. Expectations are for inflation to continue its slow grind lower. With the market pricing in a 73% probability of a 25bps rate cut at the September meeting, an uptick in inflation now would be very detrimental to the current bull run. In addition to this critical inflation report, traders will also be anticipating the beginning of earnings season which officially kicks off tomorrow with reports from a few of the bigger banks.
⛵ When you’re ready…
Some tools/resources that I personally find valuable.
A powerful yet simple fundamental analysis tool: Stock Unlock
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The trading journal to help improve your trading performance: Tradervue
Analyze trade ideas with me, KevinD, in live calls: My trading group
#1 charting software for serious traders: TradingView
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