- Morning Briefing w/ KevinD
- Posts
- Thursday September 5 @ 9:00am
Thursday September 5 @ 9:00am
Stocks mixed on mixed pre-market economic data
KevinD
September 05, 2024
In partnership with
“For some reason, because of the way investor psychology works, people switch from only seeing the good to seeing only the bad.”
📈 The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Mixed
🌎 US Index Futures: Mixed
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
🪙 Gold: Up
🧐 Yields: Down
💵 Dollar: Down a bit
🔮 Crypto: Down
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🌏 Major Global Catalysts
Yield curve uninverts. (link)
💵 Economic Reports and Events Today
7:30am Challenger Job Cuts y/y: 1% reported, 9.2% previous. The annual change in the number of job cuts announced by employers. (link)
8:15am ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: 143K expected, 99K reported, 122K previous. The monthly change in non-farm, private employment based on payroll data. (link)
8:30am Unemployment Claims: 231K expected, 227K reported, 231K previous. The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. (link)
8:30am Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q: 2.4% expected, 2.5% reported,2.3% previous. The annualized change in the efficiency of labor when producing goods and services. (link)
8:30am Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q: 0.8% expected, 0.4% reported, 0.9% previous. The annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. (link)
10:00am ISM Services PMI: 51.2 expected, 51.4 previous. Survey of about 300 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. (link)
11:00am Crude Oil Inventories: -0.8M previous. The weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. (link)
📰 Selected Earnings Releases
Consensus Estimates shown
After Hours Today:
Pre-Market Tomorrow:
BIG Big Lots EPS: -3.46 Revenue: 1.04B (link)
🔮 Selected Analyst Ratings Changes
DLTR Dollar Tree: BMO Capital Downgrades to Market Perform, Lowers Target to $68.00
JWN Nordstrom: Barclays Upgrades to Equal-Weight, Raises Target to $23.00
KBH KB Home: RBC Capital Downgrades to Underperform, Targets $70.00
NVS Novartis: Goldman Sachs Downgrades to Neutral, Raises Target to $121.00
PAGS PagSeguro Digital: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Underweight, Lowers Target to $6.50
ROKU Roku: Wells Fargo Upgrades to Equal-Weight, Raises Target to $72.00
STNE StoneCo: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Underweight, Lowers Target to $7.00
XPEV XPeng: JP Morgan Upgrades to Overweight, Raises Target to $11.50
📉 Stocks In Play
AI C3ai Down 21% after the company beat on EPS but reported lower-than-expected subscription revenue. (link)
MODG Topgolf Callaway: Up 5% after announcing the company will split into two separate companies. (link)
TSLA Tesla: Up 3% on plans for Q1 FSD rollout in Europe and China. (link)
AZN AstraZeneca: Down 3% as China detains five employees for questioning regarding possible illegal activities. (link)
JBLU JetBlue Airways: Up 4% after the company issued a strong update to revenue guidance. (link)
NIO NIO: Up 4% after beating on earnings, missing slightly on revenue, and raising guidance more than expected. (link)
Other notable earnings movers: HPE -4$, CHPT -9%, LE +3%, FCEL +1%
💬 Commentary
Stocks rallied after the open yesterday despite a weak job openings report but struggled to hold on to gains, with SPY, QQQ, and IWM all closing down about 0.2%, with QQQ slightly underperforming. Defensive sectors led the way, with utilities gaining 0.85% and staples rising 0.5%. On the flip side, energy was notably weak, falling 1.4%, while the communications sector dropped 0.5%, and technology slid 0.25%.
In other markets, crypto bounced back above an important support level after a sharp decline on Tuesday night but has pulled back again this morning. The 10-year yield hit its lowest level in over a year, and notably, the 10-2 yield curve uninverted for the first time in over two years—a signal that can often, but not always, precede an imminent recession. This yield curve movement adds to the ongoing debate over the health of the economy, as markets continue to digest mixed economic signals.
Markets are mixed and volatile this morning with IWM leading and QQQ lagging as traders try to interpret conflicting jobs data ahead of tomorrow's crucial Non-Farm Payrolls report. Given the heightened sensitivity around labor market indicators, this volatility is likely to persist throughout the day, with market participants positioning themselves ahead of tomorrow's key release.
⛵ When you’re ready…
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