Tuesday April 23 @ 9:00am

Stocks are mixed but mostly higher after yesterday's relief rally

โ€œCharts donโ€™t give answers, they raise questions. Inferences are drawn when enough questions point in the same direction.โ€

~ Mark Ungewitter

๐Ÿ“ˆ The Markets Overnight

๐ŸŒ Asia: Mostly up
๐ŸŒ Europe: Up
๐ŸŒŽ US Index Futures: Mostly up
๐Ÿ›ข Crude Oil: Down
๐Ÿ’ต Dollar: Down slightly
๐Ÿง Yields: Up
๐Ÿ”ฎ Crypto: Down

๐ŸŒ Major Global Catalysts

  • European PMIs showing economic expansion.

๐Ÿ’ต Economic Reports and Events Today

Consensus forecasts shown

  • 9:45am Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.0 Level of a diffusion index based on a survey of about 800 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. (link)

  • 9:45am Flash Services PMI 52.0 Level of a diffusion index based on a survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. (link)

  • 10:00am New Home Sales 668K Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month. (link)

  • 10:00am Richmond Manufacturing Index -7 Level of a diffusion index based on a survey of about 55 manufacturers in the Richmond area which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including shipments, new orders, and employment. (link)

๐Ÿ“ฐ Selected Earnings Releases

Consensus Estimates shown
After Hours Today:

  • TSLA Tesla EPS 0.51 Rev 22.33B (link)

  • V Visa EPS 2.44 Rev 8.62B (link)

  • TXN Texas Instruments EPS 1.07 Rev 3.61B (link)

  • BKR Baker Hughes EPS 0.40 Rev 6.36B (link)

  • ENPH Enphase Energy EPS 0.40 Rev 283.14M (link)

  • STX Seagate Tech Hldgs EPS 0.28 Rev 1.68B (link)

  • CNI Canadian National Railway EPS 1.280 Rev 3.14B (link)

Pre-Market Tomorrow:

  • META Meta Platforms EPS 4.32 Rev 36.14B (link)

  • GD General Dynamics EPS 2.96 Rev 10.36B (link)

  • T AT&T EPS 0.54 Rev 30.54B (link)

  • BIIB Biogen EPS 3.44 Rev 2.31B (link)

  • HUM Humana EPS 6.12 Rev 28.47B (link)

  • BA Boeing EPS -1.76 Rev 16.22B (link)

๐Ÿ”ฎ Selected Analyst Ratings Changes

  • PENN PENN Entertainment Truist Securities Upgrades to Buy Maintains 23.00

  • RBLX Roblox JP Morgan Upgrades to Overweight Raises to 48.00

  • SPWR SunPower Evercore ISI Group Downgrades to In-Line Maintains 6.00

  • WBD Warner Bros. Discovery Wolfe Research Downgrades to Underperform Targets 7.00

  • XP XP Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Equal-Weight Lowers to 24.00

๐Ÿ“‰ Stocks In Play

  • CDNS Cadence Design Systems Down 6% after issuing revised Q2 EPS and revenue guidance below analysts expectations. (link)

  • META Meta Up 1% after it opens the Quest VR Headset operating system to third party hardware makers. (link)

  • RBLX Roblox Up 4% on an upgrade from JP Morgan targeting 48.00. (link)

  • GM General Motors Up 5% on a strong EPS and revenue beat and raised guidance. (link)

  • SPOT Spotify Technology Up 10% on an earnings beat with 19% subscriber growth and strong MAU growth forecast. (link)

  • JBLU JetBlue Airways Down 13% after reporting a significant increase in operating loss to $716M from $192M a year earlier. (link)

  • Other Notable Earnings Movers: GL +2%, CLF -4%, NUE -7%, PHM +4%, KMB +6%

๐Ÿ’ฌ Commentary

The market experienced a bit of a relief rally yesterday as tensions in the Middle East eased and the sharp decline in semiconductors from Friday reversed. Volume during the rally was slightly below average and the profit-taking pullback at the end of the day was deeper than weโ€™d like to see. Financials emerged as the strongest sector, followed by defensives utilities and staples. Health care, communications, and materials lagged behind but still managed to close slightly higher for the day.

In pre-market trading, the markets are mixed, with large-cap indices showing strength due to solid performance from the Mag 7 while small caps underperform. For this relief rally to continue and hold above Fridayโ€™s low we will need to see a rotation out of defensive sectors and into risk-on sectors and small caps. It's likely we'll need to endure a couple of choppy days ahead as the market processes a slew of important earnings reports and moderately important economic data leading up to Friday's critical PCE report.

- KevinD

โ›ต When youโ€™re readyโ€ฆ

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Disclaimer: Everything expressed in this newsletter is a personal opinion provided for educational value only. This is not financial advice. These are not instructions, suggestions, or directions as to how to handle your money. Please, always do your own due diligence.