Tuesday February 21 @ 9:00

Author

Matthew
February 21, 2023

“Listen to what the market is saying about others, not what others are saying about the market.”

- Richard Wyckoff

📈 The Markets Overnight

🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a lot
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Down

🌏 Major Global Catalysts

  • Biden makes surprise trip to Ukraine with promise of more arms.

  • WMT and HD guidance this morning disappoint.

💵 Economic Reports and Events Today

Consensus forecasts shown

  • 9:45am Flash Services PMI 47.3 Survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

  • 9:45am Flash Manufacturing PMI 47.4 Survey of about 800 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

  • 10:00am Existing Home Sales 4.09M Annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction.

📰 Selected Earnings Releases

Consensus Estimates shown
After Hours Today:

  • CZR Caesars Entertainment EPS -0.150 Rev 2.80B

  • PANW Palo Alto Networks EPS 0.780 Rev 1.65B

  • TOL Toll Brothers EPS 1.410 Rev 1.73B

Pre-Market Tomorrow:

  • BIDU Baidu EPS 2.000 Rev 4.60B

    OSTK Overstock .com EPS 0.020 Rev 448.67M

    TJX TJX Companies EPS 0.890 Rev 14.06B

🔮 Selected Analyst Ratings Changes

  • AMAT Applied Mat Goldman Sachs Maintains Buy Raises to 120.00

  • CRM Salesforce Wedbush Maintains Outperform Maintains 200.00

  • DKNG DraftKings Needham Maintains Buy Raises to 28.00

  • FSLY Fastly Citigroup Maintains Sell Raises to 8.00

  • NVDA NVIDIA Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight Raises to 246.00

  • SQ Block Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight Raises to 67.00

📉 Stocks In Play

  • SGML Sigma Lithium up 20% on rumour of a buyout offer from Tesla.

  • JD JD .com Down 8% on expenses related to PDD competition.

💬 Commentary

Last week's market performance was characterized by a notable level of volatility as it absorbed a series of inflationary pressures that surpassed initial projections. Despite this, bullish investors displayed significant resilience as they promptly bought up any dips in the market. However, towards the end of the week, their determination waned as Federal Reserve official Bullard hinted at a potential return to 50 basis points rate hikes.

As of this morning, the market has suffered significant losses, opening below Friday's low due to global political tensions stemming from US and Russian saber-rattling, as well as disappointing guidance from major retailers Walmart and Home Depot. We will closely monitor the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust's range of 402 to 400 for indications of buying activity. Should the market break and hold below this level, it may trigger further downward momentum. In light of the upcoming release of the Federal Open Market Committee's minutes, which may exacerbate negative catalysts, today does not appear to be conducive to a robust recovery. For a more comprehensive analysis of these and related developments, please see our Weekend Update video, accessible via this link: https://youtu.be/8jC7cI3I8ZE.

- KevinD

Join me in LIVE weekly trading sessions

I run a Discord trading group where we strategize, find new setups, give feedback on previous trades, and share more in-depth briefings during the week. Join us by clicking this link here.

Was this email forwarded to you? Subscribe if you like it!

Disclaimer: Everything expressed in this newsletter is a personal opinion provided for educational value only. This is not financial advice. These are not instructions, suggestions, or directions as to how to handle your money. Please, always do your own due diligence.