- Morning Briefing w/ KevinD
- Posts
- Tuesday July 16 @ 9:00am
Tuesday July 16 @ 9:00am
Stocks higher but a little choppy in pre-market trading.
KevinD
July 16, 2024
“We take credit for the good stuff and blame the bad stuff on luck…the result is that we don’t learn from experience well.”
📈 The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly higher
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
🪙 Gold: Up a bit
🧐 Yields: Down
💵 Dollar: Up
🔮 Crypto: Down
🌏 Major Global Catalysts
US retail sales near unchanged from last month but report higher than expected. (link)
💵 Economic Reports and Events Today
8:30am Core Retail Sales m/m: 0.1% expected, 0.4% reported, -0.1% previous. Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles. (link)
8:30am Retail Sales m/m: -0.2% expected, 0.0% reported, 0.1% previous. Change in the total value of sales at the retail level. (link)
8:30am Import Prices m/m: 0.2% expected, 0.0% reported, -0.4% previous. Change in the price of imported goods purchased domestically. (link)
10:00am Business Inventories m/m: 0.4% expected, 0.3% previous. Change in the total value of goods held in inventory by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. (link)
10:00am NAHB Housing Market Index: 43 expected, 43 previous. Level of a diffusion index based on a survey of about 900 homebuilders which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months. (link)
2:45pm FOMC Member Kugler delivers closing remarks at the Economic Measurement Seminar hosted by the National Association of Business Economists, in Washington DC. (link)
📰 Selected Earnings Releases
Consensus Estimates shown
After Hours Today:
Pre-Market Tomorrow:
🔮 Selected Analyst Ratings Changes
SHOP Shopify: B of A Securities Upgrades to Buy Raises Target to $82.00
SHOP Shopify: Wolfe Research Initiates Coverage at Outperform Targets $80.00
CHGG Chegg: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Equal-Weight Lowers Target to $3.25
DDOG Datadog: Mizuho Upgrades to Outperform Raises Target to $155.00
DLTR Dollar Tree: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral Lowers Target to $112.00
RDDT Reddit: Loop Capital Downgrades to Hold Maintains Target at $75.00
SBUX Starbucks: Evercore ISI Group Downgrades to In-Line Lowers Target to $80.00
ZS Zscaler: Mizuho Downgrades to Neutral Maintains Target at $220.00
📉 Stocks In Play
MTCH Match Group: Up 6% after activist investor Starboard Value sent a letter to the company outlining initiatives for improving growth, profitability, and capital allocation. (link)
AMZN Amazon.com: Up 1% as Amazon Prime Day begins. Traders watch this two-day event closely for clues to the health of the consumer. (link)
SHOP Shopify: Up 5% on positive analyst chatter. (link)
PLTR Palantir Technologies: Down 2% on an analyst downgrade with a target of $22. (link)
SCHW Charles Schwab: Down 5% after reporting mixed results. (link)
Other notable earnings movers: UNH +2%, MS -3%, BAC +2%
💬 Commentary
SPY closed at a new all-time high yesterday but it showed some notable intraday weakness, spending most of the afternoon giving back earlier gains to finish only 0.3% higher. It was mostly the same story for the Nasdaq although without the new high. The real star was the Russell 2000 Small Caps index with IWM posting a gain of nearly 2% despite rising yields. Interestingly, only 6 of 11 sectors were green on the day. Energy and financials strongly outperformed, each up about 1.5%, with industrials deserving an honorable mention. Defensive sectors were lower as utilities suffered a sharp 2.4% decline. Crypto rallied very strongly, with Bitcoin having its strongest day since May and now flirting with the $65K level. Jay Powell indicated yesterday that a rate cut is coming but did not specify when. Fed funds futures are now pricing a 99% probability of the first rate cut at the September meeting and at least one additional cut before the end of the year.
Retail sales reported hotter than expected this morning. Stocks are adding to earlier gains on the report, although those gains continue to be somewhat muted in SPY and QQQ at about 0.25%, while IWM strongly outperforms, up 1.1%. This welcome small cap rally is starting to get a little extended so we should stay on guard for a normal and healthy pause or minor pullback. Excluding a serious negative catalyst, any significant dip will very likely find eager buyers.
⛵ When you’re ready…
Some tools/resources that I personally find valuable.
A powerful yet simple fundamental analysis tool: Stock Unlock
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Analyze trade ideas with me, KevinD, in live calls: My trading group
#1 charting software for serious traders: TradingView
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