Tuesday July 23 @ 9:00am

Market set to open slightly lower on soft semiconductor data

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“Sometimes you win, sometimes you learn.” 

~ John Maxwell

📈 The Markets Overnight

🌏 Asia: Mostly down, China very weak
🌍 Europe: Mostly up
🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
🪙 Gold: Up
🧐 Yields: Down
💵 Dollar: Up a bit
🔮 Crypto: Mixed, BTC down, ETH up

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🌏 Major Global Catalysts

  • SEC approves Ethereum spot ETFs, will begin trading today. (link)

💵 Economic Reports and Events Today

  • 10:00am Existing Home Sales: 3.99M expected, 4.11M previous. Annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction. (link)

  • 10:00am Richmond Manufacturing Index: -7 expected, -10 previous. Level of a composite index based on a survey of about 200 manufacturers in the Richmond Federal Reserve district which asks respondents to rate the relative level of general business conditions. (link)

📰 Selected Earnings Releases

Consensus Estimates shown
After Hours Today:

  • GOOGL Alphabet EPS: 1.85 Revenue: 84.20B (link)

  • TXN Texas Instruments EPS: 1.17 Revenue: 3.82B (link)

  • V Visa EPS: 2.42 Revenue: 8.92B (link)

  • TSLA Tesla EPS: 0.62 Revenue: 24.73B (link)

  • ENPH Enphase Energy EPS: 0.48 Revenue: 309.67M (link)

  • MAT Mattel EPS: 0.17 Revenue: 1.10B (link)

  • STX Seagate Tech Holdings EPS: 0.73 Revenue: 1.87B (link)

  • COF Capital One Financial EPS: 3.29 Revenue: 9.57B (link)

Pre-Market Tomorrow:

  • T AT&T EPS: 0.57 Revenue: 29.92B (link)

  • DB Deutsche Bank EPS: 0.64 Revenue: 8.14B (link)

  • TECK Teck Resources EPS: 0.50 Revenue: 2.94B (link)

  • GD General Dynamics EPS: 3.27 Revenue: 11.44B (link)

  • NEE NextEra Energy EPS: 0.98 Revenue: 7.42B (link)

🔮 Selected Analyst Ratings Changes

  • JNJ Johnson & Johnson: Daiwa Capital Downgrades to Neutral Lowers Target to $150.00

  • COIN Coinbase Glb: Citigroup Upgrades to Buy Raises Target to $345.00

  • CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings: HSBC Downgrades to Hold Lowers Target to $302.00

  • DNUT Krispy Kreme: HSBC Upgrades to Buy Targets $14.00

  • DRI Darden Restaurants: TD Cowen Downgrades to Hold Lowers Target to $150.00

  • SKX Skechers USA: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight Raises Target to $80.00

  • SNAP Snap: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Equal-Weight Raises Target to $16.00

  • UAA Under Armour: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Underweight Lowers Target to $4.00

📉 Stocks In Play

  • NXPI NXP Semiconductors: Down 7% after mixed earnings results. Semiconductors down as a group on the report. See also SMH Down 1%. (link)

  • SOLV Solventum: Up 4% after activist hedge fund Trian Partners said it has become one of the largest shareholders. (link)

  • SNAP Snap: Up 3% on an analyst upgrade targeting $16. (link)

  • TUSK Mammoth Energy Services: Up 37% after the company announced its subsidiary, Cobra Acquisitions, entered into a release and settlement agreement with the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority. (link)

  • SPOT Spotify Technology: Up 14% on their earnings beat and 14% growth in MAUs which they expect to continue. (link)

  • Other notable earnings movers: LOGI +1%, KMB -2%, GE +2%, LMT +2%, KO +1%, PM +3%, GM +3%, UPS -10%, CMCSA -4%, PHM +2%

💬 Commentary

Stocks moved solidly higher yesterday, with the Russell 2000 Index (IWM) outperforming, gaining 1.6% after a smooth, steady uptrend following a sharp morning pullback. This beat the Nasdaq-100 Index (QQQ), which rallied 1.5%, and the S&P 500 (SPY), which gained 1%.

Semiconductors were significant winners, with the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) posting nearly a 4% gain, boosted by NVIDIA (NVDA) rising 4.8% and Applied Materials (AMAT) surging 6.3%. The technology sector was the best performer among the major sectors, up 2.4%. Consumer discretionary, industrials, and REITs all saw gains of approximately 1%. The energy sector was the only one to close lower, down 0.6%.

The market seems ready to embrace risk again as breadth expanded, and some of the strongest buying occurred in stocks poised to report earnings, such as Tesla (TSLA) up 5% and Google (GOOGL) up 2.25%.

The indices are pulling back ahead of the open this morning, driven by weakness in semiconductors and reactions to a slew of earnings reports. Traders are eyeing the 10:00 AM data release, which could present a dip-buying opportunity if the data is favorable. However, the main focus today is on Tesla and Alphabet earnings reports, which will be released after the close.

- KevinD

⛵ When you’re ready…

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Disclaimer: Everything expressed in this newsletter is a personal opinion provided for educational value only. This is not financial advice. These are not instructions, suggestions, or directions as to how to handle your money. Please, always do your own due diligence.