- Morning Briefing w/ KevinD
- Posts
- Tuesday March 7 @ 9:00am
Tuesday March 7 @ 9:00am
Matthew
March 07, 2023
“Smart people learn from everything and everyone, average people from their experiences, stupid people already have all the answers.”
📈 The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed, China down
🌍 Europe: Up slightly
🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly, quiet
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Down
🌏 Major Global Catalysts
Jay Powell's testimony to Congress starting at 10am
💵 Economic Reports and Events Today
Consensus forecasts shown
10:00am Fed Chair Powell Testifies about the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington DC.
10:00am Final Wholesale Inventories m/m -0.4% Change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers.
3:00pm Consumer Credit m/m 25.2B Change in the total value of outstanding consumer credit that requires installment payments.
📰 Selected Earnings Releases
Consensus Estimates shown
After Hours Today:
CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings EPS 0.430 Rev 624.95M
SFIX Stitch Fix EPS -0.320 Rev 393.57M
CASY Casey's General Stores EPS 1.600 Rev 3.59B
Pre-Market Tomorrow:
REVG REV Group EPS -0.220 Rev 497.34M
CPB Campbell Soup EPS 0.680 Rev 2.21B
🔮 Selected Analyst Ratings Changes
COST Costco Wholesale Northcoast Research Upgrades to Buy Targets 560.00
DKNG DraftKings Argus Research Upgrades to Buy Targets 22.00
HYLN Hyliion Holdings Goldman Sachs Maintains Sell Raises to 2.50
RIOT Riot Platforms Northland Capital Markets Maintains Outperform Lowers to 9.00
UPST Upstart Hldgs Compass Point Initiates Coverage at Sell Targets 6.00
📉 Stocks In Play
WW WW International Up 19% in spite of missing earnings estimates and lower guidance but did announce aquisition of Weekend Health for $106M.
RIVN Rivian Automotive Down 5.73%on $1.3B convertible notes offering.
SE Sea Up 7% on earnings beat led by outperformance in their ecommerce division.
VRAX Virax Biolabs Group Up 137% on distribution agreement for Avian Flu PCR test kit.
💬 Commentary
Yesterday, the senior indices showed a slight increase due to outperformance from mega-cap tech, but this masked the underlying weakness in the broader market. The weakness in breadth was highlighted by the Russell 2000 small caps index which started falling right at the open and continued to fall throughout the day. This unusual behavior raises red flags for the upcoming days.
It is not surprising to see this level of uncertainty with Jay Powell set to start two days of testimony before Congress at 10 am today. Markets will be closely monitoring Powell's every word, trying to determine the likelihood of a 25bps or 50bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on March 21 and 22. Expect volatile swings during Powell's prepared remarks and in response to senators' questions, as he is likely to make comments that can be interpreted as both hawkish and dovish.
The overall tone of Powell's comments will determine the market's direction for many days, and possibly all the way into the next FOMC meeting. While events like this can present great opportunities for traders, the risk of being caught on the wrong side is high. Therefore, it is advisable to size down and always keep your losses small.
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