- Morning Briefing w/ KevinD
- Posts
- Tuesday May 16 @ 9:00am
“A trading philosophy is something that cannot just be transferred from one person to another; it’s something that you have to acquire yourself through time and effort.”
📈 The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed, China soft
🌍 Europe: Very near unchanged
🌎 US Index Futures: Down
🛢 Crude Oil: Down slightly
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Down slightly
🌏 Major Global Catalysts
Hedge fund 13F filings adding to volatility.
💵 Economic Reports and Events Today
Consensus forecasts shown
8:30am Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5%, 0.4% reported. Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.
8:30am Retail Sales m/m 0.8%, 0.4% reported. Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.
9:15am Industrial Production m/m 0.0% Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
10:00am Business Inventories m/m 0.0% Change in the total value of goods held in inventory by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers.
10:00am FOMC Member Barr testifies on supervision and regulation before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC.
10:00am NAHB Housing Market Index 45 Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed home builders.
12:15pm FOMC Member Williams Speaks in a moderated discussion about the economic outlook and monetary policy at the University of the Virgin Islands.
2:30pm FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks on Bloomberg Television.
📰 Selected Earnings Releases
Consensus Estimates shown
After Hours Today:
SBLK Star Bulk Carriers EPS 0.280 Rev 163.11M
TCS Container Store Group EPS 0.160 Rev 265.72M
Pre-Market Tomorrow:
TGT Target EPS 1.770 Rev 25.36B
JACK Jack In The Box EPS 1.210 Rev 385.15M
TJX TJX Companies EPS 0.710 Rev 11.82B
DT Dynatrace EPS 0.220 Rev 304.96M
WIX Wix.com EPS 0.140 Rev 369.35M
🔮 Selected Analyst Ratings Changes
CTIC CTI BioPharma SVB Leerink Downgrades to Market Perform Lowers to 9.10
GILD Gilead Sciences BMO Capital Upgrades to Outperform Raises to 100.00
RCL Royal Caribbean Argus Research Upgrades to Buy Targets 88.00
DKNG DraftKings Morgan Stanley Maintains Overweight Raises to 25.00
INTU Intuit Mizuho Maintains Buy Lowers to 550.00
WYNN Wynn Resorts Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight Raises to 109.00
📉 Stocks In Play
HZNP Horizon Therapeutics Down 17% on doubt merger with Amgen will be approved by the FTC.
APLD Applied Digital Up 44% after the company announced that its new AI Cloud Service has secured its first major customer.
COF Capital One Financial Up 6.5% on a stake from Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway.
💬 Commentary
The major indices opened with a pullback yesterday after gapping up. However, within 45 minutes, they found a bottom and gradually climbed higher throughout the day, although there was some intraday volatility due to discussions around the debt ceiling. But the real standout was the IWM, which represents the Russell 2000 small caps index. It started moving higher just minutes after the market opened and continued to significantly outperform well into the afternoon. The strength in the IWM was mainly driven by the regional banking sector, with the KRE ETF up over 3% and PACW up 17.5%.
This morning, the markets are showing some softness as traders express concerns over disappointing earnings from Home Depot (HD) and weak retail sales data. This unease comes ahead of a week packed with retail earnings reports. Another sector to watch today is biotech, represented by the XBI, which has taken a hit due to the Federal Trade Commission blocking a merger between AMGN and HZNP. Adding to the uncertainty are the 13F filings from major investors and hedge funds, which have caused unexpected price movements, such as Warren Buffett's disclosure of a stake in COF. It appears that we may experience further downside today before witnessing a "buy the dip" scenario, similar to what we saw yesterday. There are pockets of strength in the market, so it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect a bounce once the sellers lose their momentum.
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