“One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute.” ~ William Feather

📈 The Markets Overnight

🌏 Asia: Down
🇪🇺 Europe: Up
🇺🇸 US Index Futures: Down a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up strongly
🧐 Yields: Up a bit
🔮 Crypto: Up

🌏 Major Global Catalysts

Dovish Fed vice-chair Lael Brainard leaves to run the National Economic Council.

💵 Economic Reports and Events Today

Consensus forecasts shown
8:30am Empire State Manufacturing Index -18.2, -5.8 reported. Survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state which asks respondents to rate the relative level of general business conditions.
8:30am Retail Sales m/m 1.9%, 3% reported. Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.
8:30am Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9%, 2.3% reported. Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.
9:15am Capacity Utilization Rate 79.1% Percentage of available resources being utilized by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
9:15am Industrial Production m/m 0.5% Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
10:30am Crude Oil Inventories 1.5M Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

📰 Selected Earnings Releases

Consensus Estimates shown
After Hours Today:
MRO Marathon Oil EPS 0.840 Rev 1.72B
SHOP Shopify EPS -0.010 Rev 1.65B
ROKU Roku EPS -1.720 Rev 809.74M
FSLY Fastly EPS -0.130 Rev 114.54M
UPWK Upwork EPS -0.030 Rev 159.29M
Z Zillow Group EPS 0.070 Rev 413.48M
CSCO Cisco Systems EPS 0.850 Rev 13.42B
TWLO Twilio EPS -0.090 Rev 1.00B

Pre-Market Tomorrow:
CROX Crocs EPS 2.260 Rev 939.26M
DDOG Datadog EPS 0.190 Rev 449.31M
CVE Cenovus Energy EPS 0.480 Rev 10.28B
H Hyatt Hotels EPS 0.330 Rev 1.52B

🔮 Selected Analyst Ratings Changes

CRM Salesforce Barclays Maintains Overweight Raises Target to 195.00
PLTR Palantir Technologies Credit Suisse Reiterates Neutral Target 11.00
SOFI SoFi Technologies Mizuho Maintains Buy Raises Target to 9.00
TSLA Tesla Barclays Initiates Coverage at Overweight Target 275.00
U Unity Software Goldman Sachs Maintains Neutral Raises Target to 40.00
UPST Upstart Hldgs Citigroup Downgrades to Sell Lowers Target to 11.00
UPST Upstart Hldgs Piper Sandler Reiterates Neutral Target 16.00

💬 Commentary

Yesterday’s CPI number didn’t gives us any clarity to the future direction of Fed rate hikes and gave both the bulls and the bears something they could trade on. The end result was the choppiest morning we’ve seen in quite a while but if you were watching closely you saw the change of character about hours into the day when the buyers took control and kept buying through the rest of the day.

Index futures were down prior to the retail sales report which just came in hotter than expected. That’s good for the economy but not great for the battle against inflation. We’re chopping around on the report just like yesterday which is probably our model for price action today too. It looks like it will be another successful day for range trading and mean reversion strategies but watch out for a shift to a strongly trending day if one side wins the battle.

Happy Trading, everyone!

~ KevinD

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_{Disclaimer: Everything expressed in this newsletter is a personal opinion provided for educational value only. This is not financial advice. These are not instructions, suggestions, or directions as to how to handle your money. Please, always do your own due diligence.}