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- Wednesday March 8 @ 9:00am
Wednesday March 8 @ 9:00am
Matthew
March 08, 2023
"If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes."
📈 The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Up slightly
🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Down
🌏 Major Global Catalysts
Market repricing in the face of a potential 50bps rate hike.
💵 Economic Reports and Events Today
Consensus forecasts shown
8:15am ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 197K, 242K reported. Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.
8:30am Trade Balance -68.7B Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.
10:00am Bank of Canada Rate Statement and Overnight Rate 4.50% Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves. Previous surprises have affected US equities markets.
10:00am Fed Chair Powell Testifies about the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC. Probably nothing new from yesterday's Senate testimony.
10:00am JOLTS Job Openings 10.58M Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry.
10:30am Crude Oil Inventories 1.3M Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.
1:01pm 10-y Bond Auction Highest yield on 10-year bonds the government sold at auction, and the bid-to-cover ratio of the auction.
📰 Selected Earnings Releases
Consensus Estimates shown
After Hours Today:
MDB MongoDB EPS 0.070 Rev 337.66M
ASAN Asana EPS -0.270 Rev 145.07M
Pre-Market Tomorrow:
JD JDcom EPS 0.510 Rev 42.96B
BJ BJ's Wholesale Club EPS 0.850 Rev 4.81B
VFF Village Farms Intl EPS -0.090 Rev 70.75M
🔮 Selected Analyst Ratings Changes
AAPL Apple Wedbush Maintains Outperform Raises to 190.00
CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings Stifel Maintains Hold Raises to 125.00
CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings JMP Securities Reiterates Market Outperform Maintains 235.00
GOOGL Alphabet Needham Reiterates Buy Maintains 115.00
ON ON Semiconductor B of A Securities Maintains Buy Raises to 100.00
SE Sea TD Cowen Maintains Market Perform Raises to 64.00
SE Sea Citigroup Maintains Buy Raises to 110.00
SQ Block Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight Raises to 108.00
TSLA Tesla Berenberg Downgrades Hold Raises to 210.00
📉 Stocks In Play
CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings Up 5% on a solid earnings beat and higher guidance.
MAXN Maxeon Solar Technologies Up 23% on mixed earnings and raised guidance. Solar's been on a tear lately and a number of these stocks are setting up nicely so watch the space for rotation.
WW WW International Down 13% on downgrades after yesterday’s 80% gain on acquisition news.
💬 Commentary
Yesterday, the market was caught off guard by Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell's statement to the Senate Banking Committee. He suggested that a 50 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on March 22nd is a possibility if the data supports it. This caused a flurry of asset repricing, with SPY down 1.5% and the US dollar index up 1.27%. Before Powell's remarks, the market had priced in a 30% probability of a 50 basis point rate hike. However, that probability soared to 75% this morning. Despite the size of this adjustment, the market remained fairly well behaved beyond the initial selloff. We can expect a little more downside as the market fully prices in a 50 basis point hike, but we're setting up for a "buy the news" kind of rally on any economic data that shows inflation cooling or when the Fed actually hikes the rates.
This morning, the market is choppy as we head into another day of testimony from Powell and some crucial economic data. The JOLTS jobs report and the potentially market-moving Bank of Canada rate statement will be released at 10:00, both of which could cause high volatility. Powell's session in the House will also be closely watched. It's going to be an interesting day with potential for strong trends and unexpected reversals, so traders should proceed with caution.
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