- Morning Briefing w/ KevinD
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- Wednesday September 11 @ 9:00am
Wednesday September 11 @ 9:00am
Market down but trying to rally back from the initially negative CPI reaction
KevinD
September 11, 2024
“Curiosity is the wick in the candle of learning.”
📈 The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly, choppy
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
🪙 Gold: Down a bit
🧐 Yields: Up
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🔮 Crypto: Down
🌏 Major Global Catalysts
Core CPI inflation rises slightly month on month. (link)
💵 Economic Reports and Events Today
8:30am Core CPI m/m: 0.2% expected, 0.3% reported, 0.2% previous. Measures the change in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. (link)
8:30am Core CPI y/y: 3.2% expected, 3.2% reported, 3.2% previous. Measures annual changes in the core Consumer Price Index. (link)
8:30am CPI m/m: 0.2% expected, 0.2% reported, 0.2% previous. Represents the monthly percentage change in consumer prices for goods and services. (link)
8:30am CPI y/y: 2.6% expected, 2.6% reported, 2.9% previous. Reflects the yearly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index. (link)
10:30am Crude Oil Inventories: 0.5M expected, -6.9M previous. Shows the change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms. (link)
1:01pm 10-y Bond Auction: Previous 3.96|2.3. Highest yield on 10-year bonds the government sold at auction, and the bid-to-cover ratio of the auction. (link)
📰 Selected Earnings Releases
Consensus Estimates shown
After Hours Today:
Pre-Market Tomorrow:
🔮 Selected Analyst Ratings Changes
CHTR Charter Communications: Citigroup Upgrades to Neutral, Announces Target of $350.00
NVS Novartis: B of A Securities Downgrades to Neutral, Lowers Target to $130.00
📉 Stocks In Play
DJT Trump Media & Technology: Down 13% as the market reacts to the presidential debate. (link)
PLAY Dave & Buster's Entertainment: Up 14% as profit came in strongly higher than expected although revenue missed slightly. (link)
TAN Invesco Solar ETF: Up 4% in response to the presidential debate. See also SEDG, RUN, FLSR, CSIQ, ENPH. (link)
PLTR Palantir Technologies: Down 2% on a report chairman Peter Thiel is planning on selling up to $1 billion. (link)
ALB Albemarle: Up 13% on a sharp increase in the price of lithium as a major Chinese producer halted production at its lepidolite mine. See also ALTM, LAC. (link)
GME GameStop: Down 9% after reporting a sharp decline in sales and a surprise profit. (link)
Other notable earnings movers: DBI -25%, WOOF -2%, VRA -10%
💬 Commentary
Stocks were mixed yesterday, with the large-cap indices moving higher following a strong midday reversal, while small caps lagged behind. QQQ led the way with a 0.9% gain, followed by the SPY, which rose 0.4%, while the IWM slipped 0.1%. REITs surged 1.8%, topping the sector performance list, followed by technology with a 1.5% gain, and consumer discretionary up 1.1%. Crude oil plunged more than 4% to hit a two-year low, dragging the energy sector down 1.7%. Financials also had a rough session, starting strong but closing 1% lower after JPM’s president warned the street’s expectations for interest income and expenses are overly optimistic.
U.S. index futures were choppy and lower overnight but managed to recover to unchanged just before the CPI inflation report release. Inflation data came in mostly in line with expectations: the headline number was lower than last month, but the core month-on-month figure printed higher than anticipated. Following the report, stocks immediately sold off, IWM showing relative weakness while the QQQ was down but displayed relative strength. Financials and interest rate-sensitive sectors, such as REITs, are underperforming, while technology is attempting to hold its ground. If tech and the Nasdaq can maintain this early momentum and break above the pre-market high, it likely signals broader market strength moving forward.
⛵ When you’re ready…
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A powerful yet simple fundamental analysis tool: Stock Unlock
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Analyze trade ideas with me, KevinD, in live calls: My trading group
#1 charting software for serious traders: TradingView
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