- Morning Briefing w/ KevinD
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- Wednesday September 4 @ 9:00am
Wednesday September 4 @ 9:00am
Stocks continue lower but attempting a small bounce in pre-market trading
KevinD
September 04, 2024
In partnership with
“People worry about the riskiness of stocks, but bonds can be just as risky.”
📈 The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down
🛢 Crude Oil: Down a bit
🪙 Gold: Down a bit
🧐 Yields: Mixed near unchanged
💵 Dollar: Down a bit
🔮 Crypto: Down
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💵 Economic Reports and Events Today
8:30am Trade Balance: -78.8B expected, -78.8B reported, -73.1B previous. The difference in value between imported and exported goods and services. (link)
9:45am BOC Rate Statement Overnight Rate: 4.25% expected, 4.50% previous. Announcement of the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate. (link)
10:00am JOLTS Job Openings: 8.09M expected, 8.18M previous. The number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry. (link)
10:00am Factory Orders m/m: 4.6% expected, -3.3% previous. The total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers. (link)
2:00pm Fed Beige Book: A summary of commentary on current economic conditions complied by the Federal Reserve. (link)
📰 Selected Earnings Releases
Consensus Estimates shown
After Hours Today:
Pre-Market Tomorrow:
🔮 Selected Analyst Ratings Changes
ARRY Array Technologies: Jefferies Upgrades to Buy, Targets $11.00
BYD Boyd Gaming: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight, Raises Target to $74.00
NDAQ Nasdaq: B of A Securities Upgrades to Buy, Raises Target to $90.00
RMD ResMed: Needham Downgrades to Hold, Maintains Target at $236.00
SG Sweetgreen: TD Cowen Upgrades to Buy, Raises Target to $43.00
📉 Stocks In Play
ZS Zscaler: Down 17% after reporting a double beat but issuing soft guidance below expectations. (link)
NVDA NVIDIA: Down 2% after the Justice Department subpoenaed the company seeking evidence for an antitrust investigation. (link)
AMD Advanced Micro Devices: Up 2% on the appointment of former Nvidia exec Keith Strier as senior VP of global AI markets. (link)
DLTR Dollar Tree: Down 11% after missing on earnings and revenue, and lowering guidance. (link)
GTLB GitLab: Up 12% after the company reported better-than-expected Q2 financial results and issued FY25 guidance above estimates. (link)
Other notable earnings movers: ASAN -14%, DKS -1%, REVG -13%, CRMT -10%, CIEN +2%
💬 Commentary
The market experienced a sharp shift to risk-off sentiment yesterday, driven by renewed fears of an economic slowdown highlighted by a weaker-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI. The S&P 500 dropped 2%, while the Nasdaq (QQQ) and small-cap index (IWM) each fell 3%. Defensive sectors like staples and REITs were the only areas to close higher, with gains of about 0.7% and 0.2%, respectively. Technology took the biggest hit, plunging 4.6%, with semiconductors down nearly 8% as Nvidia's post-earnings decline deepened by an additional 9.5%. Other risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, also saw sharp declines in the flight to safety.
The sell-off extended into after-hours trading and this morning’s pre-market session as traders anxiously await key jobs data following the open. With nerves still high, this data will likely determine whether yesterday's risk-off sentiment persists or if investors are prepared to buy the dip. Early price action and the market’s reaction to the report will be crucial in gauging sentiment changes that could influence trading ahead of Friday's critical Non-Farm Payrolls report. Early dip buying is likely to encounter resistance from sellers, as anticipating this to be a brief, one-day event seems overly optimistic given the current market sentiment. The sharp decline in risk assets and the broader concerns about an economic slowdown suggest that caution will prevail, and further downside could be in store. Traders should be prepared for continued volatility and potential selling pressure as the market digests incoming data and reassesses risk.
⛵ When you’re ready…
Some tools/resources that I personally find valuable.
A powerful yet simple fundamental analysis tool: Stock Unlock
AI-powered stock research tools used by institutional investors: Finchat
The trading journal to help improve your trading performance: Tradervue
Analyze trade ideas with me, KevinD, in live calls: My trading group
#1 charting software for serious traders: TradingView
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